IMF predicts that Kazakhstan may yield to Central Asian countries and Uzbekistan in terms of economic growth
According to the World Economic Outlook, real GDP of the world economy decreased by 3.3%, but already this year, according to forecasts, growth may reach 6%, and in 2022 - 4.4%.
Among the countries of Central Asia (CA), Uzbekistan has the highest projected real GDP growth for 2026 (5.5%), followed by Kazakhstan (4.4%), Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan (4% each) and Turkmenistan (3.7 %).
At the same time, this year the smallest real GDP growth among the CA countries is expected in Kazakhstan (3.2%), while the highest is predicted for Kyrgyzstan (6%), followed by Uzbekistan (5%), Tajikistan (5 %) and Turkmenistan (4.6%).
In 2022, progressive GDP growth is projected for Uzbekistan (up to 5.3%) and Kazakhstan (up to 4%). In the rest of the Central Asian countries, according to the IMF forecast, economic growth, on the contrary, will slow down.
In 2020, real GDP growth in Uzbekistan amounted to 1.6% (recall that Kazakhstan's indicators are in the red).
In the sectoral structure of Kazakhstan's GDP, the provision of services prevailed: 55.8% in January-December 2020. Their volume in real terms decreased by 5.6% compared to 2019. The share of industry in GDP was 27% (minus 0.4%), construction - 6.1% (plus 11.2%), agriculture, forestry and fisheries - 5.3% (plus 5.6%).
The GDP in the sectoral structure in January-December 2020, share of services was slightly more than a third, while in real terms, the services sector was in positive territory by 0.1% compared to the same period in 2019. The share of industry in GDP was 26.3% (plus 0.7%), agriculture, forestry and fisheries - 26.1% (plus 3%), construction - 6.5% (plus 9.2%).